The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to see a drop in seats in the Bihar Lok Sabha elections, winning 32 of the 40 seats, according to the Nation’s Mood Opinion Poll. India Today.
The INDIA bloc, comprising the Congress, the RJD and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Left, is likely to increase its numbers and win eight seats if the vote were held today.
The February 2024 edition of Mood of the Nation is based on a survey of 35,801 respondents across all Lok Sabha seats. Health warning: opinion polls can be wrong.
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He Survey on the mood of the nation It took place between December 15, 2023 and January 28, 2024 and therefore does not take into account the recent political developments of recent weeks and the consequent changes in alliance arithmetic.
Therefore, it must be noted that the opinion poll does not take into account the scenario in Bihar after JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar quit the Mahagathbandhan and rejoined the NDA.
In 2019, the BJP, the JD(U) and the undivided Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) contested the Lok Sabha elections together and won 39 of the 40 seats. The BJP won 17 seats, the JD(U) 16 and the LJP six seats, dealing a heavy blow to the opposition. The Congress won only one seat and the RJD drew a blank.
In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to see a marginal drop to 52 per cent from the 53 per cent it polled in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The opposition bloc is likely to benefit as it will see an increase in vote share of seven percentage points from the 31 percent he obtained in 2019.
Projections also show that Nitish Kumar’s political somersault – his fourth in about eight years – is not likely to dramatically change the situation on either the NDA or INDIA camps.
This time, the NDA in Bihar will have to accommodate several smaller parties during the seat-sharing talks. While Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was part of the NDA in 2019, the LJP is no longer a single party. There are two factions: one led by Chirag Paswan and another by his uncle and Union minister Pashupati Kumar Paras.
Besides, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal are also now with the BJP. It remains to be seen if the BJP and the JD(U) decide to contest a smaller number of seats to accommodate their allies.